A mini burger, mini fries and mini beer, Clinton Corridor’s “Teeny Weeny Mini Meal”, is pictured subsequent to a regular-sized combo on Dec. 8, 2025 in New York Metropolis. Roughly one in eight American adults are presently taking medicine from the category of GLP-1 agonists that at the moment are standard for weight reduction, based on a November ballot by the non-profit well being coverage tracker KFF. Some within the restaurant business are taking observe.
Angela Weiss | AFP | Getty Photos
The price of GLP-1 medicine is falling, and tablet variations are hitting the U.S. market. For restaurant chains and snacking giants, greater adoption of weight reduction and diabetes remedies poses a menace to their gross sales — or a chance.
GLP-1 medicine gradual digestion, suppress customers’ appetites and enhance satiety. For a lot of eating places and packaged meals producers, these reactions will seemingly imply weaker gross sales. Adults who use GLP-1s devour 21% fewer energy and spend almost a 3rd much less on grocery payments on common, based on KPMG. JPMorgan estimates the rising use of the drugs may wipe out $30 billion to $55 billion in annual gross sales for the meals and beverage business as quickly as 2030.
About one in each eight U.S. adults is presently taking a GLP-1 drug like Ozempic or Zepbound, based on the KFF Well being Monitoring Ballot carried out from Oct. 27 to Nov. 2. That quantity does not embrace customers who’ve discontinued their use of the medicine; 18% of respondents mentioned that they’ve taken a GLP-1 treatment sooner or later.
These numbers are anticipated to maintain climbing, particularly after Novo Nordisk launched its Wegovy tablet in January and Eli Lilly prepares to roll out its personal oral drug this yr. By 2030, greater than 30 million People could possibly be on a GLP-1 therapy, up from 10 million in 2026, primarily based on J.P. Morgan estimates.
Michael Siluk | UCG | Common Photos Group | Getty Photos
However the shift additionally presents a chance for eating places and meals and beverage firms.
With new protein- and fiber-rich choices, many companies are hoping to win over GLP-1 customers and mollify traders’ considerations about how the remedies will have an effect on their backside strains.
“Whether or not it’s labeling as GLP-1 pleasant, reducing the serving dimension, emphasizing protein content material, and even while you shift over to the beverage world, as a result of hydration is definitely a priority, there are a selection of gamers which might be beginning to react to this,” mentioned Don Okay. Johnson, principal of technique and execution for EY-Parthenon.
Skipping snacks and breakfast
About half of GLP-1 customers report consuming fewer energy whereas taking the drugs, based on UBS Proof Lab. However the results aren’t even throughout the business, and “sure classes are extra impacted than others,” Johnson mentioned.
Snacking, as soon as one of many fastest-growing grocery segments, has taken the most important hit. About 70% of GLP-1 customers who report consuming fewer energy mentioned that they’re snacking much less, based on a survey carried out by EY-Parthenon final spring.
“I feel it’s concerning the particular kind of snack, however I do assume they’re additionally snacking much less … Having mentioned that, we do see that there’s a shift to more healthy meals, and that definitely will embrace more healthy snacking,” Johnson mentioned.
Assume extra yogurt, nuts or fruit, and fewer chips or pretzels.
Since GLP-1 medicine lead sufferers to decrease their caloric consumption, each calorie consumed means extra. Protein consumption is extra essential to forestall muscle loss. So, too, is fiber to assist intestine well being and digestion. And staying hydrated helps mitigate a few of the medicine’ negative effects, like nausea and complications.
The results of consuming much less lengthen to eating places. About 60% of these respondents to the EY-Parthenon survey mentioned that they’re eating out much less ceaselessly.
The shift may additionally hit full-service eating places the place diners order a drink with their meals. Roughly 45% of survey respondents who’re consuming and ingesting much less mentioned that they’re ingesting much less alcohol.
Surveys carried out by Bernstein point out that the frequency of restaurant visits amongst GLP-1 customers can fall by as a lot as 45%, relying on the class of meals and the character of the event, analyst Danilo Gargiulo of Bernstein wrote in a analysis observe revealed on Tuesday.
The pullback in restaurant visits is not unfold evenly throughout occasions of day, based on Dana Baggett, govt director of restaurant shopper technique at RRD, which works with greater than 200 restaurant manufacturers.
Lunch, thus far, hasn’t been impacted, she mentioned. However breakfast has taken successful, significantly from high-income GLP-1 customers, who characterize a much bigger proportion of present sufferers, she mentioned. In apply, meaning fewer sugary espresso drinks and doughnuts, though choices like Starbucks‘ protein chilly foam may encourage these customers to return.
A business for GLP-1 medicine in the course of the Tremendous Bowl LX broadcast on tv screens at a bar in Los Angeles, California, US, on Sunday, Feb. 8, 2026.
Jill Connelly | Bloomberg | Getty Photos
Dinner, particularly at fast-food eating places, has taken the brunt of the injury thus far.
Dinner visitors has fallen 6% amongst customers who’ve been taking the treatment commonly, based on Baggett; in different phrases, total restaurant gross sales throughout dinner hours have declined about 0.4% as a consequence of GLP-1 use, she mentioned. However because the variety of customers who use the drug persistently grows, so too will the stress on restaurant visitors.
And snacking is not confined to grocery retailer aisles. For limited-service eating places, like McDonald’s or Taco Bell, snacking accounts for 12% of spending, based on Financial institution of America International Analysis.
Even so, threats to these giant eating places chains might solely be gradual, which supplies them time to adapt.
“I feel there should not be this panic on the market within the market, however it is a pattern that is not going away,” Baggett mentioned. “That is an incredible alternative for manufacturers to begin repositioning themselves and specializing in what customers need: much less sugar, greater protein and that target fiber.”
How Massive Meals is evolving
If current earnings convention calls are any instance, restaurant and meals executives additionally assume that it’s not time to panic simply but. For some firms, the pattern gives an opportunity to achieve new clients by means of more healthy choices.
“I feel there are extra alternatives than threats, however there are each,” PepsiCo CEO Ramon Laguarta advised Wall Road analysts on the corporate’s earnings convention name in early February.
In current months, Pepsi has launched protein-packed Doritos, relaunched Gatorade and unveiled fiber-rich forms of SunChips and Smartfood popcorn. These strikes are a part of the corporate’s broader technique to modernize its portfolio and enhance gross sales by interesting to health-conscious customers, however additionally they align with Laguarta’s assumption that GLP-1 drugs shall be adopted extra broadly.
Domino’s Pizza CEO Russell Weiner sounded unshaken when he advised analysts final month that the pizza chain hasn’t seen GLP-1 medicine have an effect on its gross sales but.
“Dinner, for us, is a sharing event, so maybe that is why we’re not seeing any impression, however we’ll proceed to observe it,” he mentioned. “But when there must be menu innovation round that, we are going to try this.”
RRD’s Baggett advised CNBC that she thinks parts and snack sizing shall be key for eating places to draw customers who’re on GLP-1 remedies.
When requested concerning the medicine on McDonald’s earnings convention name final month, CEO Chris Kempczinski touted the burger chain’s present protein choices. However he added that the preferences of GLP-1 customers are additionally being thought-about because the chain creates new menu gadgets.
“We’re additionally seeing adjustments round perhaps much less snacking, adjustments in a few of the drinks that they drink, much less sugary drinks, and so all of these issues are factoring into a few of what we’re on the market experimenting with and testing with,” he mentioned.
Different restaurant chains have already launched choices that attraction to diners on GLP-1 medicine, even when the drugs weren’t the important thing impetus. For instance, Chipotle launched grab-and-go protein cups in December, aiming to money in on the protein and snacking crazes as its restaurant gross sales struggled.
And Olive Backyard, owned by Darden Eating places, launched a Lighter Parts menu final yr, downsizing a handful of its basic entrees at a lower cost. Darden CEO Rick Cardenas mentioned that the chain launched the brand new menu to offer all of its clients extra choices.
“It simply so occurs to learn the customers which may need smaller parts which might be on GLP-1 drugs, and we’ve a variety of choices like that in all of our menus,” Cardenas mentioned on the corporate’s earnings convention name in December.
Advertising and marketing to GLP-1 customers
Different firms have explicitly appealed to GLP-1 customers, significantly in relation to innovation.
In 2024, Nestle led the pack when it launched Digital Pursuit, a frozen-food model focusing on GLP-1 customers. Whereas the packaging initially did not name out that it was “GLP-1 pleasant,” the meals firm up to date it later to incorporate it prominently, boosting gross sales.
“It is a large initiative for Nestle,” Nestle USA CEO Marty Thompson advised CNBC at a media occasion earlier in March. “There shall be these issues which might be designed for GLP-1, and there shall be these issues that shall be kind of a companion to GLP-1, clearly calling out protein and fiber, however not essentially designed portion-size smart or no matter for GLP-1.”
Nestle’s focus will lengthen past meals, too. Thompson mentioned that the corporate plans to develop into drinks and listed protein shakes as one potential solution to attraction to GLP-1 clients.
Even meals firms with out a lot publicity to GLP-1 customers are broadening their portfolios to achieve them.
Shut-up view of Dippin’ Dots ice cream cup in an individual’s hand, Santa Cruz, California, June 22, 2024.
Smith Assortment | Gado | Archive Photographs | Getty Photos
For instance, Dippin’ Dots and Icee proprietor J&J Snack Meals makes most of its gross sales in stadiums, theme parks and malls. Due to its “experiential” focus, CEO Dan Fachner advised CNBC that he thinks that J&J is extra insulated from the impact of GLP-1 medicine in contrast with its snacking friends.
“I nonetheless assume that usually, even folks on GLP-1 medicine will nonetheless use these events for snacking,” he mentioned.
Even nonetheless, greater than a yr in the past, Fachner offered staff with a problem for the corporate’s grocery enterprise, which accounts for 13.5% of annual gross sales.
“Take the core merchandise — pretzels and churros and Icees and Dippin’ Dots and frozen novelties — inform me how we are able to make them extra GLP-1 pleasant because it continues to develop,” he mentioned.
This yr, J&J has a lot of new merchandise hitting the freezer aisle. Protein has been added to its delicate pretzels, now accessible in a smaller portion dimension. And Luigi’s Italian Ice, historically bought in a cup, will are available in a “mini pop dimension,” with a components that features extra antioxidants or helps hydration, based on Fachner. If the brand new merchandise reach grocery shops, then J&J plans to take them to the corporate’s meals service clients, as properly.
J&J’s new merchandise additionally benefit from interesting to a wider viewers than simply customers who’re on GLP-1 treatment. For instance, Fachner expects the brand new Luigi’s mini pops will attraction to health-conscious mothers as a snack for his or her youngsters.
Uptake may change methods
For eating places and meals suppliers, present information on the consuming and ingesting habits of GLP-1 customers are informing their efforts to attraction to these customers. However that habits can nonetheless fluctuate.
About 5% of customers lapse in taking the drugs, as a consequence of price, negative effects or hitting their weight objective. After quitting, they have a tendency to keep up the identical consuming habits for a few months earlier than ultimately returning to a better caloric consumption.
“I feel that we do not spend sufficient time speaking about the truth that there could also be kind of a cycle of behaviors — folks happening and off of the medicine — that may have kind of an fascinating impression on producers of meals as a result of there isn’t any ‘earlier than’ and ‘after,'” EY’s Johnson mentioned. “It is a course of.”
And a complete new group of customers may quickly be taking every day tablet variations of GLP-1 drugs. It is too quickly to inform if oral GLP-1 medicine will end in extra constant utilization or greater stop charges and to know who precisely is attempting the tablet model over the injectable.
“I haven’t got a crystal ball, however my guess is from our survey that the oldsters utilizing the oral model of the drug shall be a brand new set of individuals, as a result of one of many obstacles to trial was — as might be anticipated — lots of people do not prefer to take pictures of injections,” Johnson mentioned.
There’s one prediction that’s extensively accepted: the tablet model will imply a lot greater adoption of GLP-1 medicine.