Ten years in the past, a document 17.6 million automobiles, vans and SUVs have been bought within the U.S. Some forecasts say the nation may not come near that quantity once more.
Analysts at consulting agency Bain & Firm stated a number of indicators point out the market is about to shrink much more. Falling start charges, behavioral adjustments, excessive automobile costs and a rising array of options may drive gross sales down by greater than 2 million items by 2040, in keeping with their evaluation.
These indications level to a future the place automakers fiercely compete for a shrinking variety of clients, stated Mark Gottfredson, a companion at Bain & Firm.
The auto business has traditionally relied on an annual 1% development price that tracks the rise of the general inhabitants, Gottfredson stated. However everywhere in the world, authorities statistics present inhabitants development has slowed, and a few nations are already seeing declines.
“It’s the good storm, is not it,” Gottfredson stated. “It begins with the inhabitants declines. You are not a development business. You are a declining business. You are a declining business at a time when the expertise is disrupting every part.”
The U.S. fertility price in 2025 was about 1.6 births per lady. Whereas not as little as some nations in Europe or Asia, it is thought-about under the substitute price of two.1, in keeping with the Facilities for Illness Management.
Bain stated that has been offset by comparatively excessive immigration — about one million individuals coming to the U.S., in keeping with the historic common it cited. However the agency stated it expects restrictive immigration insurance policies will final for the following 15 years, chopping historic web migration charges of the previous 20 years in half, which implies it may once more attain low ranges seen in 2019.
That remaining inhabitants’s habits has modified — partially attributable to excessive costs and inexpensive options, in keeping with Bain. Half of 16-year-olds immediately do not have a driver’s license, in contrast with practically 70% of 16-year-olds between the years of 1966 and 1984, Gottfredson stated. The stat may replicate a mere delay slightly than a complete refusal — Bain’s analysis suggests most individuals nonetheless get licenses by age 25.
Nonetheless, the share of recent automobile registrations amongst individuals aged 18 to 34 fell from 12% within the first quarter of 2021 to below 10% by mid-2025, in keeping with S&P International Mobility. Consumers 55 and older account for practically half of all new registrations and have held the biggest share for eight straight quarters, the agency stated.
“The engine behind it’s affordability,” stated Craig Daitch, founder and president of Telemetry, a agency that does market analysis for the auto business. New automobile month-to-month funds are up 30% over 4 years, and practically one in 5 new autos now carries a fee over $1,000 a month, he added.
AutoForecast Options, a forecasting agency, expects U.S. new automobile gross sales to remain comparatively flat at round 16 million by means of 2033, the furthest yr sooner or later for which the corporate points estimates.
“Whenever you look into the long run, youthful persons are extra doubtless to make use of Uber or Lyft once they’re going someplace,” Sam Fiorani, vp of world automobile forecasting for the corporate. “We’re nonetheless seeing teams of younger individuals who take pleasure in driving and desire a new automobile, however fewer can afford it.”
If robotaxis turn out to be extensively out there and inexpensive within the subsequent 15 years, the share of the licensed inhabitants may drop round 2 to three share factors, to 85%, in keeping with Bain analysis. The variety of autos per driver may drop from 1.2 to 1.1, which might be equal to 10% to twenty% of U.S. households shedding one automobile.
The projections Gottfredson shared with CNBC are revisions. He had earlier focused 2030 because the yr when volumes would dip under 14 million, however stated he modified these assumptions as a result of autonomous autos are taking longer than anticipated to reach.
The inhabitants numbers although, are baked in.
“We already understand how many individuals have been born and the way many individuals can be of auto driving age at age 16 in 16 years from now. And so we will say with fairly a little bit of certainty that after we get to 2040, we’ll see we’ll see some decline within the U.S. That decline is even worse in locations like Europe and in locations like many of the nations in Asia.”
Gottfredson stated essentially the most direct indicator of a possible of a future decline is the speed at which autos are “deregistered,” which is once they’re taken off the highway and both scrapped or exported to a different market, as occurs with used autos.
In 2000, the speed of deregistration was about 6%, in keeping with the Bain report. As of 2025, the speed was about 5%. Gottfredson stated that price may fall to 4.4% by 2040. That is primarily as a result of autos are lasting longer — hitting a document 12.8 years on the highway in 2025, in keeping with S&P International Mobility.
This might reverse. The longevity of electrical automobile batteries continues to be unsure. Additionally it is unclear how lengthy automakers can be prepared or capable of replace the software program that’s more and more important to new automobiles.
Nevertheless, auto forecasters say that with automobile costs as excessive as they’re, the business should discover a approach to hold automobiles in service.
“At the moment’s autos cannot have a limitation of 5 to 10 years,” Fiorani stated. “It isn’t sensible for an individual who’s spending $50,000 or $100,000 that it will be junk in lower than a decade.”
Ought to these developments maintain, the auto business within the U.S. is liable to turn out to be ever extra aggressive. Shoppers have their selection of about 450 nameplates within the nation already.
“The competitors within the U.S. goes to be ferocious,” Gottfredson stated. “There’s too many automakers and too many manufacturers competing for the customers. The market goes to should consolidate.”