Institutional traders could also be proving extra resilient bitcoin holders than critics anticipated, based on Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, who says ETF circulation information suggests skilled traders have largely held onto their positions through the crypto market’s steep decline.
“The very best proof we have now is within the ETF market,” Hougan stated. “Bitcoin ETFs amassed roughly $60 billion in internet flows from their launch in January 2024 by way of October 2025. Since October 2025, costs are down 50%, however we have seen lower than $10 billion in outflows from ETFs.”
Bitcoin exchange-traded funds attracted roughly $60 billion in internet inflows between their launch in January 2024 and October 2025, Hougan informed CoinDesk. Since then, the cryptocurrency’s worth has fallen about 50%, but ETFs have seen lower than $10 billion in outflows.
“In different phrases, regardless of a punishing bear market, skilled traders have confirmed to be ‘diamond arms’ in bitcoin,” he stated.Hougan’s Bitwise affords a collection of digital asset funding merchandise, together with the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB). BITB has slightly below $3 billion in belongings beneath administration. The main spot bitcoin ETF, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Belief (IBIT) has greater than $55 billion in AUM.
Bitcoin stays a ‘non-consensus asset’
Hougan stated the information problem a standard criticism that institutional traders, typically thought of extra delicate to macroeconomic shocks and liquidity cycles, may promote their bitcoin publicity shortly in periods of market stress. Nonetheless, he added, the alternative dynamic could also be at play at the moment.
“Regardless of its progress in recent times, bitcoin stays a non-consensus asset,” he stated. “Institutional traders who purchase bitcoin at present are nonetheless sticking their neck out and standing out from their friends.”
That profession danger means establishments allocating to bitcoin at present are likely to have unusually sturdy conviction within the asset, stated the CIO at Bitwise, a San Francisco-based firm with over $15 billion in consumer belongings beneath administration.
That profession danger means establishments allocating to bitcoin at present are likely to have unusually sturdy conviction within the asset, stated the CIO at Bitwise, a San Francisco-based firm with over $15 billion in consumer belongings beneath administration.
“Consequently, the institutional traders who determine to allocate have very excessive conviction,” Hougan stated. “They aren’t 51% satisfied bitcoin is a good suggestion; they’re 80% or 90% satisfied. In any other case, they would not take the danger.”
Due to that dynamic, he stated he believes institutional capital may stay “very sticky” even throughout unstable market cycles “for the foreseeable future.”
The $1 million BTC query
Hougan stated the conduct of institutional traders throughout downturns strengthens his long-term $1 million bitcoin outlook, on which he doubled down within the interview.
“The wildest factor about my $1 million prediction is that it is not wild in any respect,” Hougan stated. “All you want for bitcoin to get to $1 million is for the worldwide retailer of worth market to proceed to develop because it has for the previous 20 years and for bitcoin to turn into a minor however materials a part of that market.”
For Hougan, the resilience of institutional traders by way of unstable market cycles is a part of that broader maturation course of.
“It simply wants what’s been occurring for the previous 10-20 years to maintain occurring for the following 10 years, and we’ll get there,” he stated.