Customary Chartered nonetheless expects the stablecoin market to achieve $2 trillion by the tip of 2028, which ought to translate into round $1 trillion in new Treasury invoice demand, the financial institution stated in a Monday report.
As of early 2026, the overall stablecoin market capitalization is roughly $300-$320 billion.
“This can end in c. $0.8-$1.0 trillion of recent demand for T-bills (to be used as reserves) from stablecoin issuers over that interval,” wrote Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset analysis, and U.S. charges strategist John Davies.
Mixed with $1-$1.2 trillion in projected Federal Reserve shopping for, whole new T-bill demand might hit about $2.2 trillion by way of 2028, the report stated. That compares with roughly $1.3 trillion in web new provide if payments’ share of whole debt stays unchanged, implying a possible shortfall of $0.9 trillion.
Stablecoin issuers corresponding to Tether and Circle (CRCL) have grow to be main patrons of short-term U.S. authorities debt, holding tens of billions of {dollars} in Treasury payments as reserves backing tokens corresponding to USDT and USDC.
Tether alone has disclosed T-bill holdings that rival these of mid-sized sovereign buyers, whereas Circle additionally retains a major share of its reserves in short-dated Treasuries by way of cash market funds.
Because the stablecoin market grows, issuers usually park new inflows into T-bills to earn yield whereas sustaining liquidity, successfully channeling crypto-driven capital into U.S. authorities financing and reinforcing demand on the entrance finish of the yield curve.
The Treasury stated in its February 4 Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) that it “is monitoring SOMA purchases of Treasury payments and rising demand for Treasury payments from the personal sector,” a pattern Customary Chartered expects to accentuate.
The analysts stated the projected extra demand provides Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent scope to elevate T-bills’ share of issuance. Elevating that share by 2.5 share factors over three years would create about $0.9 trillion in extra invoice provide, offsetting the hole.
Reallocating that quantity from longer-dated bonds might successfully droop 30-year auctions for 3 years and ease upward strain on long-term yields, in accordance with the report.
Whereas not its base case, the financial institution expects the 10-year yield to achieve 4.6% by end-2026, because the analysts warned of rising dangers of front-end shortage.
Stablecoin progress has not too long ago stalled simply above $300 billion, up from $238 billion in April 2025, as crypto costs weakened and post-GENIUS Act issuance slowed. Bitcoin has fallen greater than 50% from its $126,000 October 2025 peak, dampening trading-driven demand. Customary Chartered views these headwinds as cyclical and maintains that stablecoins might add almost $1 trillion in incremental T-bill demand by 2028, reshaping U.S. price markets.
Learn extra: Customary Chartered sees bitcoin sliding to $50,000, ether to $1,400 earlier than restoration